The Declining Wrath Of China

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Written By grundhofers_z3i613

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The story of rising powers and declining hegemons has become ever so common in today’s world. The growth and rise in power of one has led to bells ringing across the world of an already powerful nation. For example, the power conflict between the Soviet Union and the United States of America led to the Cold War.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/cf71feb2-297f-4e3a-8627-b89931cc6a80

China is a power on the rise, competing with major world powers on all levels. Recently, it even took over the United States of America as the wealthiest nation in the world, with a whopping GDP of 14.72 billion U.S. dollars, only next to America. Which brings the imminent question, how?

About a decade ago, China was just another developing country in Asia alongside India and Bangladesh. Today, China has crossed beyond and established its place as a world power.

In 1978, the government of China decided to pave the way for a new economic growth strategy that would change China for years to come. China’s government embraced liberalization, worked arduously on its education sector, and pushed rural and private businesses. With this, they managed to awaken the sleeping economic giant.

The new economic reforms have worked spectacularly. Since 1978, the country has seen growth ranging from 9 percent to as high as 13 percent annually. China became the world’s largest exporter of goods by 2009, with revenue amounting to $2.41 trillion in 2019.

However, China’s global image has recently stooped low, hindering the country’s strategic plans. China’s reputation has plummeted, not just in the U.S. but also in European countries. If that wasn’t enough, China is increasingly losing favor in its neighborhood with its Asian and South-Asian counterparts. China’s negative image today is at a historic high, even in the world’s most advanced nations.

 This has emerged due to a range of different reasons. The biggest reason in recent times is Covid-19. China has been charged responsible, not officially but among the common public, for the spread of the virus that hindered economic growth and led to the loss of life of around 6.4 million people worldwide. China is being blamed for keeping information on the virus hidden. China attempted to curb news of the virus from spreading and only informed the world of the virus when the situation was out of hand. The Chinese government has also halted measures to trace the virus. Several whistle-blowers have made news for confirming the alleged claim of the virus being ‘lab-made,’ which only further maligns China’s world image. The Chinese authority has also held back the number of covid cases in China.

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-antibody-tests-and-immunity-certificates-pose-ethical-and-scientific-problems/a-53121716

China has also tried to threaten countries with economic coercion. The country is infamous for using its big checkbook to intimidate and coerce countries needing monetary assistance. The Chinese government provides loans to other countries at a tremendous rate of 4%. For comparison, the IMF only charges a 1.2% interest rate from loaners. This is essentially done to ‘dept trap’ countries which leads them to default on their payments and enables the Chinese government to take control of other nations’ assets. The most notorious example is Sri Lanka.

Along with the country’s faulty economic policies, the country took an enormous loan, amounting to 7 million USD from the Chinese government. This furthered the complete collapse of the Sri Lankan economy as it failed t pay back the loan. Chinese loans come with unclear terms and conditions, and the Chinese government doesn’t provide concessions. Due to Sri Lanka’s loan default, the government of Sri Lanka had to lease the port of Hambantota port for 99 years to China. This doesn’t just threaten the sovereignty of Sri Lanka but also raises privacy concerns for India, whose border lies just 160km from the port of Hambantota. The Indian government has repeatedly raised concerns about security issues. China could use the port as a military base and high-tech ship vessels to collect private information about its military activities in Southern India. China, however, declines all such claims.

Source: https://www.opindia.com/2021/12/china-plans-to-use-debt-trap-policy-to-saddle-nations-with-loans-is-faltering/

China has become an undisputed Asian powerhouse, challenging the United States for the status of a superpower. It has all the ambitions of a developed country, from dominating trade and economics to having military superiority and presence in every part of the world. The Xi government has reiterated its claim on China and considers it a breakaway province. The Chinese government conducts military drills near Taiwan very often.

China, over the years, has invested heavily in crucial technologies, weapons, and infrastructure. It now poses formidable military power to challenge the United States in an aggressive war. Xi’s military aggression has been rising, especially towards Taiwan, where China asserts its full control. China has also started the Belt and Road initiative to take more countries into its orbit. At the same time, the government plans to restart the ancient ‘Silk Route.’

But as the saying goes, ‘everything that rises must fall .’In the 1970s, China had abundant time on its hand. It had six people to replace one adult in the workforce, exporting resources more than importing. It had favorable climatic conditions and a massive supply of earthly resources. The country was self-sufficient with an easygoing geopolitical environment. Most importantly, it didn’t have a target on its back from the great superpower- America, but long gone are the good days for China.

Source: https://www.weforum.org/communities/gfc-on-china

China is rapidly losing all the advantages that paved the way for its incredible growth. In the 1970s, China was experiencing high growth rates, but in recent times, these growth rates have plummeted to as low as 2%. The 1980 ‘one-child policy’ to control the access population growth has backfired for the country as it stands to lose its ‘biggest player’ in growth, its labor force. By 2050 the country is set to lose around 200 million working adults and add them to the age bracket of 65 or older; the government doesn’t have enough children to replace this massive workforce. An aging population means lower outcomes, which means low economic growth.

With Xi being China’s ‘undisputed leader’, the country now has more rigid policies for international companies. This has led investors and companies to move out of China. Between April 2018 and August 2019, 56 companies left China. With government control, it is becoming increasingly difficult for companies to work in China as ‘ease of working’ disappears.

The current debt of China is more than 250 percent of its GDP. China holds over a trillion in U.S. debt alone. The pandemic has widened the budget deficit to about 600 percent. Amid all this, the Chinese government has created rules to fine the flouting companies. The fines can go up to 50 million yuan. China enforced the Personal Information Protection Law on November 1, 2021. The law limits the number of data companies is allowed to collect. The companies are also required to look for ways out of data sharing. Given this, companies like LinkedIn have changed their service to only a job-providing platform and obliterated its social networking facilities.

Source: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2021/09/195_315321.html?WA

Chinese regulators are cracking down on tech companies. As a payback, the U.S. has also imposed restrictions on companies like Huawei and Xiaomi. The sharpest arrow to the chest has been the Chinese crackdown on local companies. Companies like Ali Baba are facing charges. This has also forced several other e-commerce companies to either flee the heat or provide allegiance to the Chinese Communist Party for their smooth functioning.

The government of China uses the “Great Firewall” to use laws and technologies to enforce censorship. The country has set up draconian policies, telling internet companies what to do or not to do. Social media sites like Twitter and Facebook are not permitted for use in Mainland China. Any politically inappropriate content or anything ‘indecorous’ according to the CCP is removed. Given this, it is no surprise that China has the world’s most extensive surveillance mechanism, with about 54 percent of the world’s CCTV-540 million cameras used by China alone.

The real estate sector bubble in China has burst. The recent collapse of China’s property sector has just added to the erroneous economic policies accumulated. There has been a drop in house sales of about 31.4 percent in 2021-2022, amounting to almost 2.4 trillion yuan. The crisis commenced with the real estate giant Evergrande and has now spread to the rest of the economy. Several other Chinese companies are now defaulting on loan payments, facing a severe cash crunch as Xi cements his hold on the country more daily. This has forced mortgage payers in over 100 Chinese cities to take strict measures such as stopping their mortgage payments.

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/why-chinas-property-crash-isnt-a-new-lehman-moment/a-59716702

Xi’s ‘zero covid’ policy has rebounded, reversing China’s glorious economic growth. The Chinese government has stringent measures against covid. It often ends up locking up cities of millions of people for only a handful of cases. Chinese regulators often use force to take unrelenting citizens to quarantine centers, even separating children as young as one year old from their parents. This has also furthered the economic slowdown in China. The citizens are furious and often use what little means of retaliation they have. The public sentiment in China is going against the Chinese Communist Party quickly. The country is experiencing extreme climate reaction from never seen before floods and wide-ranging droughts. Xi is looking for a swooping victory in the upcoming elections and to bag a third term.

Internationally, China is the ‘world’s biggest Villain’, the biggest threat to world peace. The public sentiment against China is now even higher than during the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989. The notorious Uighur Muslim genocide, with over 1 million Uighurs missing and believed to be in concentration camps, there has been a severe international backlash from the world community. A dragon that has stepped way out of its league and needs to be curbed immediately.

In short, China is running out of time to consolidate its position as the world’s superpower. The Chinese Communist Party has a target on its back from all sides- investors are becoming increasingly wary of investing in China. Governments are becoming increasingly wary of working with China and are seeing the downside of Chinese debts. Companies are annoyed by stringent working environments. Future labor shortages, amounting debt, international backlash, countries increasingly supporting Taiwan’s bid to stay independent, and the U.S. helping to militarize Taiwan- the glorious future of China has started to look grim.

China’s hostile nature has seen small countries coming together and going against China, preventing it from using them as puppets.

There have also been the formation of alliances like QUAD and the AUKUS to combat China’s growing presence in the Pacific., Infringement of privacy and security concerns has forced international governments to take strict actions to protect their citizens’ privacy. Athletes were asked to use burner phones in Winter Olympics 2022 to prevent data tracking by China.

Source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/checking-china-what-is-the-quad-alliance/articleshow/91757226.cms

The world spent 30 years entering China and making it its manufacturing hub. China makes up 28.7% of global manufacturing output. From sports equipment to furniture to electric machinery. China is the biggest producer of goods in the world; with the U.S. alone importing goods up to 473 billion U.S. dollars, this could soon change. Countries are now focusing on alternative manufacturing sources, preferably domestic, to end their dependency on China. China is making more enemies than friends, spending way more than it can afford for a long time. The window to overtake the U.S. is closing fast for China.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/fe86f76c-1215-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

This has led to China being more hostile and aggressive, with the country trying to hold on to what little time it has left and hopefully make the best use of it. Constant barriers from rich countries to China’s developing influence and China’s hostility forcing countries like Japan to increase military spending. The world is growing warier with easy Chinese growth. It is now or never for China. China is now more of an ‘enemy’ compared to the earlier competition. With an increasing number of countries isolating China, its proximity to Russia is hurting its development. A deeply troubled power with more enemies than allies is a recipe for disaster.

The world needs to buckle up for more aggression from China and find ways to combat it soon because China, on a ‘time crunch,’ cannot afford to stop now.

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